Look at income data paints a different picture
“Job growth is rocking, but wage growth stinks.” So went most coverage of December’s jobs report, which saw nonfarm payrolls rise by 252,000 and the unemployment rate drop to 5.6%—yay!—but average hourly wages fall -0.2% m/m (the y/y number slowed to 1.7%). Blarg. That dim number resurrected long-simmering slow-wage-growth fears, with many claiming America’s labor markets and economy can’t be healthy if incomes are stuck in neutral. However, a broader look at income data paints a different picture. Stocks don’t need rip-roaring income growth for this bull market to continue, but the apparent disconnect between slow-income-growth perceptions and fine-income-growth reality suggests sentiment remains a tad too dour—a bullish disconnect.
Now, we aren’t arguing incomes are booming. But they also aren’t as sad as Friday’s news suggests. There are many income growth gauges. The BLS’s measure—average hourly earnings—is one. The BEA has others, like disposable income and wage and salary growth by industry. All paint slightly different pictures.
First, the sad-looking hourly earnings. Year-over-year growth is the slowest of any expansion since 1965. It is likely cold comfort to most workers that non-supervisory and production employees—frontline workers—saw faster wage growth than their bosses.
But is that the full story? After all, real disposable incomes are largely in line with past expansions, aside from a bizarre blip surrounding the payroll tax holiday’s December 2012 expiration.